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Taiwan's IC Industry Output Anticipated to Grow by 11.1% in 2014
 

Author : Mao-Jung Peng

1.Worldwide Semiconductor Market to Grow by 4.1% in 2014
Total Worldwide GDP reached USD 61.84 trillion in 2013, with a growth rate of 2.8%, increasing by 0.2% compared to the 2.6% growth of 2012. Emerging countries such as China and India are still experiencing high GDP growth. However, worldwide economic recovery still depends on the stable and robust development of developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and European countries. After all, the United States, Japan, and Europe account for 50.1% of worldwide GDP. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also announced the latest "World Economic Outlook Report," which projected that the worldwide GDP growth rate will reach 3.7% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015 as the strength of the economic recovery increases.

2.Worldwide PC Shipment Volume Decreases 1% in 2014
In 2013, the worldwide PC shipment volume (including desktops, notebooks, and ultra-thin notebooks) was 316 million units, which decreased by 10% compared to the 351 million units of 2012. This represented the biggest decline in the history of the PC market. It is projected that overall PC shipment volume will decrease by approximately 1% in 2014. Among PCs, shipment volume for desktops will decrease by approximately 5%, notebooks will decrease by approximately 7%, and ultra-thin notebooks will increase by approximately 41%.

The worldwide tablet PC shipment volume has grown by 53.5% in 2013 compared to that of 2012, and the shipment volume reached 221 million units. It is projected that the overall tablet PC shipment volume will increase by approximately 25% in 2014.

The worldwide mobile phone shipment volume in 2013 was 1.85 billion units and experienced a growth of 2.1% compared to 2012. Among them, the shipment volume for traditional mobile phones was 790 million, a decrease of 24.7%. The shipment volume for smart phones was 1.06 billion units, setting a historical record with a growth rate of 39.3%. It is projected that the overall mobile phone shipment volume will increase by approximately 3.5% in 2014. Among them, the shipment volume for traditional mobile phones will decrease by 17.6%. The shipment volume of smart phones will increase by 20.5%.

3.Worldwide Semiconductor Market to Grow by 4.1% in 2014
According to estimates from WSTS, the 2013 worldwide semiconductor market sales value reached USD 304.3 billion, compared to USD 291.6 billion in 2012, a growth of 4.4%. It is projected that the worldwide semiconductor market sales value will reach USD 316.6 billion in 2014, a growth of 4.1%. That value will reach USD 327.3 billion in 2015, a growth of 3.4%, and reach USD 336.5 billion in 2016, a growth of only 2.8%.


Figure 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Market Forecast

4.Taiwan IC Industry Output Growth to Grow 11.1% in 2014
Since the outlook for the U.S. market has started to recover and Japan is also breaking away from the recession, the overall environment has greatly improved. Driven by the worldwide smart phone and tablet PC demands, Taiwan's IC design industry will experience a dramatic increase in chip shipments for mid to low-priced smart handheld devices. The Taiwanese market will successfully become the supply chain for numerous leading international brands and begin to enter the high-end market formerly dominated by major international chip manufacturers. The most advanced technology in Taiwan's IC design industry has entered 28 nm, and the supply chain has been gradually extended to the international brand manufacturers. Taiwan's IC design value market share ranks second worldwide after the United States.

Taiwan's IC industry is mainly divided into two parts, namely, the foundry industry and memory manufacturing industry (primarily include DRAM, NOR Flash, and Mask ROM). The main factors for the growth are the tremendous growth of mobile communication demand as well as Taiwan's ability as the primary manufacturer that can supply the advanced processes worldwide. Supply shortfalls and imbalances have gradually eased as a result of plant expansions. Taiwan's foundry output value market share ranks first in the world. In addition, Taiwan's memory manufacturing value output growth is primarily caused by the DRAM supply shortage and price increase.

Smart phones and tablet PCs have experienced excellent growth. Major mobile phone manufacturers have successively launched flagship models worldwide. Under supply shortage of the advanced foundry processing capacity, supply for the high-end packaging and testing capacity as well as flip chips will also be tight. However, the buying trends in the PC industry will wane and thus offset the overall performance of the IC packaging and testing industry. Taiwan's IC packaging and testing output value market share ranks first in the world.

It is estimated that Taiwan's IC industry had an output value of NT$2.0981 trillion in 2014, which represented an increase of 11.1% compared to 2013. Among which, the IC design industry will achieve sales of NT$542.5 billion, an increase of 12.8% compared to 2013. The IC manufacturing industry will attain sales of NT$1.111 trillion, an increase of 11.5% compared to 2013. The packaging industry will achieve sales of NT$307.8 billion, a rise of 8.2% compared to 2013. The testing industry will achieve sales of NT$136.8 billion, representing an increase of 8.1% compared to 2013.

Table 1. Taiwan's IC industry output from 2010 to 2014

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